Tracking the Tropics: Disturbance in Atlantic has low chance of developing, NHC says

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The tropics have quieted down now that Delta is gone and we approach the middle of October.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking one disturbance in the Atlantic Basin but, as of Wednesday afternoon, it has a low chance of formation.

The disturbance is a broad area of low pressure that’s producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. NHC forecasters posted an outlook Wednesday morning saying the area was a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

The NHC says strong upper-level winds should hinder any significant development in the coming days as the system moves to the west-northwest.

Even if the system doesn’t develop, however, forecasters say it could bring heavy rain to parts of the central and northern Lesser Antilles starting Wednesday. That rain could reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday and then Hispaniola on Friday.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the system is being given a low 10 percent chance of formation through the next five days.

Long-range forecast models are hinting at possible development in the western Caribbean Sea next week. It is much too soon to tell if this will even develop, let alone where it will go. However, it is something to watch over the next week if the forecast models continue to show it.

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